Friday, June 26, 2020

A Look at DESE's Cited Sources: Footnote #7, #10, and #61 - Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

DESE Claim 1 (footnote #7): "In general, rates of COVID-19 infection are lower for children than for adults. Based on an analysis of data from six countries, children under 20 are half as susceptible to COVID-19 infection than adults."

DESE Claim 2 (footnote #10): "In general, rates of COVID-19 infection are lower for children than for adults. [...] Children are more likely to be asymptomatic, however, which underscores the importance of health behaviors for everyone (masks/face coverings, distancing, handwashing, surface cleaning).

DESE Claim 3 (footnote #61): "Based on data from six countries, children under 20 are half as susceptible to COVID-19 infection than adults."

Cited Source: Davies, N.G., Klepac, P., Liu, Y. et al. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0962-9

Peer Reviewed?: not double-blind peer review (editor's name is listed)

Study Methodology: mathematical modeling and statistical analysis

Notes: Less cases of COVID-19 have been seen in children. "The distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases has shown strong age dependence, with notably few cases in children. This could be because younger ages are less susceptible to infection and/or are less prone to showing clinical symptoms when infected." However, reported cases may not align with the number of children infected with SARS-CoV-2, the infection that causes COVID-19 "If infected children are less likely to show clinical symptoms, then the number of cases reported among children would be lower, but children with subclinical symptoms could still be capable of transmitting the virus to others, potentially at lower rates than fully symptomatic individuals, as has been shown for influenza." 

DESE Claim 1 Supported?: Yes. However, lower rates of COVID-19 in children does not account for the danger of adult to adult transmission in schools. The study does not speak to adult infections and transmission within schools. Lower rates do not mean no infections.

DESE Claim 2 Supported?: Yes. Again, childhood infection rates do not account for adult safety in schools. However, all the precautions suggested in the DESE document are supported by many other sources and public health recommendations.

DESE Claim 3 Supported?: Yes.

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