Saturday, June 27, 2020

A Look at DESE's Cited Sources: Footnote #31 - Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

DESE Claim: "There is no precise threshold for safety; indeed, studies suggest that physical distancing of three feet or more leads to reduced transmission, with additional distance providing additional protection"

Cited Source: Zhang, J., Litvinova, M., Liang, Y., Wang, Y., Wang, W., Zhao, S., ... & Ajelli, M. (2020). Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science. Available at https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/04/science.abb8001

Peer Reviewed?: Yes

Study Methodology: Mathematical modeling and contact tracing "we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province"

Notes: This study determined that during the outbreak, people in Wuhan and Shanghai had contact with fewer people than they did before the outbreak. Schools were closed during the study period in these cities, so most children were only in contact with members of their households. During the study, people "decreased daily contacts, essentially reducing them to household interactions. This led to a dramatic reduction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission." 

Supports DESE Claim?: Limited. The study says strict stay-home and physical distancing help reduce the spread of COVID-19. They do not address the specific parameters distancing.

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