Saturday, June 27, 2020

A Look at DESE's Cited Sources: Footnote #14, #65, and #76 - Characteristics of Hospitalized Pediatric COVID-19 Cases—Chicago, Illinois, March–April 2020

DESE Claim 1 (footnote #14): "If infected, it appears children may be less likely to infect others with COVID-19. [...] In a U.S. study of 15 households, 73% of transmissions were from adult to child (the remaining were child-to-child or child-to adult)."

DESE Claim 2 (footnote #65): "In a Chicago study, only 1% of COVID-19 cases in Chicago were in children 0-17."

DESE Claim 3 (footnote #76): "In a Chicago study, for 15 households where data was available, 73% of transmissions were from adult to child (the remaining 27% was due to two child-to-child and two child-to adult transmissions)."

Cited Source: Mannheim, J., Gretsch, S., Layden, J. E., & Fricchione, M. J. (2020). Characteristics of Hospitalized Pediatric COVID-19 Cases—Chicago, Illinois, March–April 2020. Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. Available at https://academic.oup.com/jpids/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jpids/piaa070/5849922

Peer Reviewed?:  Yes

Study Methodology: "This was a case series of Chicago COVID-19 patients aged 0–17 years reported to the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) from March 5 to April 8, 2020. Enhanced case investigation was performed"

Notes: This study is not primarily focused on investigation related to the DESE claim about household infection rates. The study examined hospitalization of pediatric patients. It also notes a limitation due to school closure (thus most children being home and only in contact with household members). "[...]school closures and shelter-in-place directives were instituted during this time period." Additionally, a look at hospitalized cases may not be representative of all COVID-19 cases.

Supports DESE Claim 1?: Extremely limited support in a non-school environment. Again, no conclusion about adult transmission can be drawn from pediatric studies. The fact that the study is not actually attempting to prove or support the DESE claim means it may not have been scrutinized in the same way as the main part of the study around hospitalization.

Supports DESE Claim 2?: Yes. 

Supports DESE Claim 3?: Yes, though school closures are a limiting factor.

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